Remarks at the Fifth Data Management Strategies and Technologies Workshop, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City

"We conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD), using several analytical approaches from large-sample theory and bootstrapped small-sample confidence intervals. We do so for two different PD estimation methods--cohort and duration...

We estimate the macroeconomic benefits and international spillovers of an increase in competition using a general-equilibrium simulation model with nominal rigidities and monopolistic competition in product and labor markets. We draw three conclusions after calibrating the model to the euro area...

"When risk-factor loadings are time-varying and unobservable, investors are forced to form beliefs about the levels of their loadings. The learning process involved in forming these beliefs has normative implications for asset-pricing tests. This paper develops an equilibrium model of learning...