Joint written testimony before the Congressional Oversight Panel, Washington, D.C.

Remarks at the Workshop on the Risks of Wholesale Funding, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.

Remarks at the Barclays Global Inflation Conference, New York City.

We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a novel set of facts: 1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the very long run; 2) the shape of the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables:...

We provide a preference-based rationale for endogenous overconfidence. Horizon-dependent risk aversion, combined with a possibility to forget, can generate overconfidence and excessive risk taking in equilibrium. An “anxiety prone” agent, who is more risk-averse to imminent than to distant...

We investigate the determinants of students’ university choice, with a focus on expected monetary returns, non-pecuniary factors enjoyed at school, and financial constraints, in the Pakistani context. To mitigate the identification problem concerning the separation of preferences,...

Despite a robust college premium, college attendance rates in the United States have remained stagnant and exhibit a substantial socioeconomic gradient. We focus on information gaps— specifically, incomplete information about college benefits and costs—as a potential explanation for these...

We develop a new methodology for estimating the importance of herd behavior in financial markets. Specifically, we build a structural model of informational herding that can be estimated with financial transaction data. In the model, rational herding arises because of information-event...

Remarks at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Annual U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City.

Remarks at 2010 CFA Institute Fixed Income Management Conference, Newport Beach, California.