Showing 1 - 10 of 81
The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001591424
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001752001
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001751995
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001590070
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001512206
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002623546
important role in forecasting stock and bond liquidity. The results establish a link between “macro” liquidity, or money flows …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001752003
"This paper develops a new approach to change-point modeling that allows for an unknown number of change points in the observed sample. Our model assumes that regime durations have a Poisson distribution. The model approximately nests the two most common approaches: the time-varying parameter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002521761
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010938565
This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … evidence of autonomous variance breaks and inflation gap persistence. Through a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise … quarterly inflation relative to an extended range of forecasting models that are typically used in the literature. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078430