This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … inflation, a host of real-activity data, term structure data, nominal data, and surveys. In each individual specification, we … deflator inflation rates for the United States in the post-World War II period. Over the full 1960-2008 sample, the framework …

The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) asserts that inflation depends on expectations of real marginal costs, but … empirical research has shown that purely forward-looking versions of the model generate too little inflation persistence. In … this paper, we offer a resolution of the persistence problem. We hypothesize that inflation is highly persistent because of …

earlier work by Sbordone. The estimator is again applied to a version of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, in which inflation …. While confirming the importance of forward-looking terms in accounting for inflation dynamics, it suggests how the … methodology can be applied to extend the analysis of inflation to a multivariate setting. …

implies that the dynamics of inflation are well explained by the evolution of real marginal costs. In this paper, we analyze … whether this is a structurally invariant relationship. We first estimate an unrestricted time-series model for inflation, unit …

In this paper, I consider the policy implications of two alternative structural interpretations of observed inflation … specification allows for some degree of intrinsic persistence by way of a lagged inflation term in the NKPC. The second is a purely … specification, most of the observed inflation persistence is attributed to fluctuations in the underlying inflation trend, which are …

realistic parameter values, the model generates a blip in inflation of the same magnitude observed in the data"--Federal Reserve …

involving U.S. inflation and GDP growth. Empirical results suggest that the number of change points is larger than previously …