involving U.S. inflation and GDP growth. Empirical results suggest that the number of change points is larger than previously …

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … evidence of autonomous variance breaks and inflation gap persistence. Through a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise … quarterly inflation relative to an extended range of forecasting models that are typically used in the literature. …

The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) asserts that inflation depends on expectations of real marginal costs, but … empirical research has shown that purely forward-looking versions of the model generate too little inflation persistence. In … this paper, we offer a resolution of the persistence problem. We hypothesize that inflation is highly persistent because of …

earlier work by Sbordone. The estimator is again applied to a version of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, in which inflation …. While confirming the importance of forward-looking terms in accounting for inflation dynamics, it suggests how the … methodology can be applied to extend the analysis of inflation to a multivariate setting. …

implies that the dynamics of inflation are well explained by the evolution of real marginal costs. In this paper, we analyze … whether this is a structurally invariant relationship. We first estimate an unrestricted time-series model for inflation, unit …

In this paper, I consider the policy implications of two alternative structural interpretations of observed inflation … specification allows for some degree of intrinsic persistence by way of a lagged inflation term in the NKPC. The second is a purely … specification, most of the observed inflation persistence is attributed to fluctuations in the underlying inflation trend, which are …

pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …) models, with and without financial frictions, for output growth and inflation in the period 1992 to 2011. We find strong … react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other …