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Remarks at the Convening on Student Loan Data Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
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"We conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD), using … different PD estimation methods--cohort and duration (intensity)--using twenty-two years of credit ratings data. We find that … barrier is crossed, we are able to distinguish quite cleanly notch-level estimated default probabilities. Conditioning on the …
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We compare the inflation expectations reported by consumers in a survey with their behavior in a financially incentivized investment experiment designed such that future inflation affects payoffs. The inflation expectations survey is found to be informative in the sense that the beliefs reported...
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Remarks at E-3 Summit of the Americas: Export Trade Basics Forum 101, San Juan, Puerto Rico.
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Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.
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Remarks at the Center for the New Economy 2010 Economic Conference, San Juan, Puerto Rico.
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