pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … evidence of autonomous variance breaks and inflation gap persistence. Through a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise … quarterly inflation relative to an extended range of forecasting models that are typically used in the literature. …

partial least squares (PLS) regression to extract dynamic factors from the data set. Our forecasting analysis considers ten …

One of the most robust stylized facts in macroeconomics is the forecasting power of the term spread for future real … activity. The economic rationale for this forecasting power usually appeals to expectations of future interest rates, which … affect the slope of the term structure. In this paper, we propose a possible causal mechanism for the forecasting power of …