involving U.S. inflation and GDP growth. Empirical results suggest that the number of change points is larger than previously …

important role in forecasting stock and bond liquidity. The results establish a link between “macro” liquidity, or money flows …

pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …) models, with and without financial frictions, for output growth and inflation in the period 1992 to 2011. We find strong … react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other …

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … evidence of autonomous variance breaks and inflation gap persistence. Through a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise … quarterly inflation relative to an extended range of forecasting models that are typically used in the literature. …

partial least squares (PLS) regression to extract dynamic factors from the data set. Our forecasting analysis considers ten …

minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on … outperforms existing models of inflation expectations in explaining the heterogeneity in the data. We find that women, ethnic … update their expectations. In addition, we show that personal income forecasts are positively related to subjective inflation …