Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, University of California, Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project 2012, May 3, 2012

Council on Foreign Relations, May 8, 2014, New York, NY President Charles Plosser outlines his views that monetary policy transparency and forward guidance could be enhanced if the central bank would be more explicit about its reaction function.

In this paper, we investigate the properties of alternative monetary policy rules using four structural macroeconometric models: the Fuhrer-Moore model, Taylor's Multi-Country Model, the MSR model of Orphanides and Wieland, and the FRB staff model. All four models incorporate the assumptions of...

This paper examines the predictive power of shifts in monetary policy, as measured by changes in the real federal funds rate, for output, inflation, and survey expectations of these variables. The authors find that policy shifts have larger effects on actual output than on expected output,...

We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents and the central bank possess imperfect knowledge about the true structure of the economy. Policymakers...