Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia> The Philadelphia Chapter of the Risk Management Association, Philadelphia, PA, January 11, 2011

Economic Prospects and Monetary Policy for the New Year> 33rd Annual Economic Seminar, January 11, 2012, Rochester, New York

We build a New Keynesian model in which heterogeneous workers differ with regard to their employment status due to search and matching frictions in the labor market, their potential labor income, and their amount of savings. We use this laboratory to quantitatively assess who stands to win or...

The Phillips curve has long been used as a foundation for forecasting inflation. Yet numerous studies indicate that over the past 20 years or so, inflation forecasts based on the Phillips curve generally do not predict inflation any better than a univariate forecasting model. In this paper, the...