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The pattern of employment and residential land use and densities in a stochastic model of urban location

Gruenstein, John - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 1986

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717334

A tractable circular city model with an application to the effects of development constraints on land rents

Chatterjee, Satyajit; Eyigungor, Burcu - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2012

Superseded by working paper 13-37. A tractable production-externality-based circular city model in which both firms and workers choose location as well as intensity of land use is presented. The equilibrium structure of the city has either (i) no commuting ("mixed-use" form) or (ii) a central...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011027311

Do supply restrictions raise the value of urban land? The (neglected) role of production externalities

Chatterjee, Satyajit; Eyigungor, Burcu - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2013

Restriction on the supply of new urban land is commonly thought to raise the value of existing urban land. Our paper questions this view. We develop a tractable production-externality-based circular city model in which firms and workers choose locations and intensity of land use. Consistent with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699385

Fiscal policy: ex ante and ex post

Croushore, Dean; van Norden, Simon - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2014

The surge in fiscal deficits since 2008 has put a renewed focus on the authors’ understanding of fiscal policy. The interaction of fiscal and monetary policy during this period has also been the subject of much discussion and analysis. This paper gives new insight into past fiscal policy and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010930299

Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

Rossi, Barbara; Inoue, Atsushi - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2011

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the … choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over … application shows the usefulness of the methodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009216229

Forecast bias in two dimensions

Croushore, Dean - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2012

Economists have tried to uncover stylized facts about people’s expectations, testing whether such expectations are rational. Tests in the early 1980s suggested that expectations were biased, and some economists took irrational expectations as a stylized fact. But, over time, the results of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551328

A Bayesian vector error corrections model of the U.S. economy

Stark, Tom - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 1998

(VEC) literature, the author specifies the baseline model as a Bayesian VEC. The author documents the model's forecasting … promise as a workhorse forecasting tool. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717293

A real-time data set for macroeconomists

Croushore, Dean; Stark, Tom - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 1999

robustness of published econometric results, for analyzing policy, and for forecasting. The data set consists of vintages, or …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717356

A Bayesian VAR forecasting model for the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area

Crone, Theodore M.; McLaughlin, Michael P. - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 1999

Vector-autoregression (VAR) forecast models have been developed for many state economies, including the three states in the Third Federal Reserve District--Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. This paper extends that work by developing a Bayesian VAR forecast model for the Philadelphia...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717369

Optimal prediction under asymmetric loss

Christoffersen, Peter F.; Diebold, Francis X. - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 1997

Prediction problems involving asymmetric loss functions arise routinely in many fields, yet the theory of optimal prediction under asymmetric loss is not well developed. We study the optimal prediction problem under general loss structures and characterize the optimal predictor. We compute it...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717386