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The Phillips curve has long been used as a foundation for forecasting inflation. Yet numerous studies indicate that over the past 20 years or so, inflation forecasts based on the Phillips curve generally do not predict inflation any better than a univariate forecasting model. In this paper, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320692
separation rate, whether exogenous or endogenous, greatly increases the unemployment variability generated by the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421573
-market policy instruments, namely, a vacancy subsidy, a layoff tax and unemployment benefits. The authors derive analytical … that hiring subsidies, layoff taxes and the replacement rate of unemployment insurance should all rise in recessions. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009366950
Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia> The Philadelphia Chapter of the Risk Management Association, Philadelphia, PA, January 11, 2011
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010727091
Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, New Jersey Bankers Association, May 12, 2011, Aventura, Florida
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010727136
Economic Prospects and Monetary Policy for the New Year> 33rd Annual Economic Seminar, January 11, 2012, Rochester, New York
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010727157
market outcomes than job switchers. Over 40% of all workers separating into unemployment regain employment at their previous … temporary layoff. Recalls are associated with much shorter unemployment duration and better wage changes. Negative duration … dependence of unemployment nearly disappears once recalls are excluded. We also find that the probability of finding a new job is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010732483
both the vacancy-unemployment ratio and employment. The authors show that the standard version of the Mortensen …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717291
links both the cyclical fluctuations and the mean level of unemployment to the aggregate business cycle risk. The key result … of the paper is that business cycles are costly for all consumers, regardless of their wealth, yet that unemployment … fluctuations themselves are not the source of these costs. Rather fluctuations over the cycle induce higher average unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717292
cycle dynamics of separation and job finding rates and to quantify their contributions to overall unemployment variability …. Cyclical changes in the separation rate lead those of unemployment, while the job finding rate and unemployment move … contemporaneously. Fluctuations in the separation rate explain between 40 and 50 percent of fluctuations in unemployment, depending on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717314