The authors report the results of the estimation of a rich dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in the Taylor rule. They use the results of this estimation to examine the recent monetary history of the U.S. and to...

Presented at The Forecasters Club, New York, New York, February 29, 2012.>

This paper presents new evidence on the benefits of conditioning quarterly model forecasts on monthly current-quarter data. On the basis of a quarterly Bayesian vector error corrections model, the findings indicate that such conditioning produces economically relevant and statistically...

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Conference, Zurich, Switzerland, September 24, 2010