The authors study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity … consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To … evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, the authors first estimate tax and spending processes for the U …

This paper investigates the extent to which technology and uncertainty contribute to fluctuations in real exchange … contributors to the dynamics of real exchange rates. Investment-specific and uncertainty shocks have a more restricted effect on …

introduces uncertainty about economic policy, this pattern may have adversely affected the economy. According to existing …

wider in emerging countries; (ii) economies in emerging countries experience greater economic policy uncertainty; (iii …) emerging economies are more polarized and less politically stable; and (iv) economic policy uncertainty is positively related … also by shifts in political ideology. Switches between left-wing and right-wing governments generate uncertainty about the …

scale economies using two production models. The standard risk-neutral model finds little evidence of scale economies. The … model using more general risk preferences and endogenous risk-taking finds large scale economies. The authors show that …

efficient risk-sharing, negatively correlated with relative consumptions across countries. This paper shows that a model with … international transmission of productivity shocks generate the observed degree of risk-sharing: one associated with an improvement … transmission pattern. These findings are at odds with the presumption that terms-of-trade movements foster international risk-pooling. …