The authors study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity … consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To … evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, the authors first estimate tax and spending processes for the U …

This paper investigates the extent to which technology and uncertainty contribute to fluctuations in real exchange … contributors to the dynamics of real exchange rates. Investment-specific and uncertainty shocks have a more restricted effect on …

introduces uncertainty about economic policy, this pattern may have adversely affected the economy. According to existing …

wider in emerging countries; (ii) economies in emerging countries experience greater economic policy uncertainty; (iii …) emerging economies are more polarized and less politically stable; and (iv) economic policy uncertainty is positively related … also by shifts in political ideology. Switches between left-wing and right-wing governments generate uncertainty about the …

scale economies using two production models. The standard risk-neutral model finds little evidence of scale economies. The … model using more general risk preferences and endogenous risk-taking finds large scale economies. The authors show that …

The Great Recession focused attention on large financial institutions and systemic risk. We investigate whether large … economies or too-big-to-fail subsidies. Estimating scale economies is made more complex by risk-taking. Better diversification … resulting from larger scale generates scale economies but also incentives to take more risk. When this additional risk …

products and services to informationally opaque customers, their ability to diversify credit and liquidity risk, and how they … liabilities to reduce the probability of bank runs. These aspects of banking affect a bank’s choice of risk vs. expected return …, which, in turn, affects bank performance. Banks have an incentive to reduce risk to protect the valuable charter from …

business creation in a world where new business owners are exposed to idiosyncratic risk due to initial imperfect … diversification. This paper uses this framework to analyze how entrepreneurial risk has changed over time and how this has affected … employment in the US. Conditions are provided under which entrepreneurial risk can be identified using micro data on the size …