In high-dimensional factor models, both the factor loadings and the number of factors may change over time. This paper proposes a shrinkage estimator that detects and disentangles these instabilities. The new method simultaneously and consistently estimates the number of pre- and post-break...

Supersedes Working Paper No. 13-24 This paper uses a unique data set to shed new light on credit availability to consumer bankruptcy filers. In particular, the authors’ data allow them to distinguish between Chapter 7 and Chapter 13 bankruptcy filings, to observe changes in credit demand and...

From 2007 to 2010, more than 200 community banks in the United States failed. Many of these failed community banking organizations (CBOs) held less than $1 billion in total assets. As economic conditions worsen, banking organizations are expected to preserve capital to withstand unexpected...

Society of American Business Editors and Writers Fall Conference, City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate School of Journalism. New York, NY. President Charles Plosser gives his views on the regional and national economy and discusses why he remains optimistic about the economic outlook. He...

Lehigh Valley Partnership and Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corporation. Allentown, PA. President Charles Plosser gives his views on the regional and national economy and discusses why he remains optimistic about the economic outlook. He also shares his thoughts about monetary policy and...

The authors study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal deficits and public debt have risen sharply in the wake of the financial crisis. While these developments make fiscal consolidation inevitable, there is considerable...

The literature on optimal monetary policy in New Keynesian models under both commitment and discretion usually solves for the optimal allocations that are consistent with a rational expectations market equilibrium, but it does not study whether the policy can be implemented given the available...