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-market policy instruments, namely, a vacancy subsidy, a layoff tax and unemployment benefits. The authors derive analytical … that hiring subsidies, layoff taxes and the replacement rate of unemployment insurance should all rise in recessions. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009366950
links both the cyclical fluctuations and the mean level of unemployment to the aggregate business cycle risk. The key result … of the paper is that business cycles are costly for all consumers, regardless of their wealth, yet that unemployment … fluctuations themselves are not the source of these costs. Rather fluctuations over the cycle induce higher average unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717292
Two often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure-side version GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version GDI . The authors propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. They then put the theory to work, producing a superior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320691
First Draft: November 1, 2011 We propose a theory of endogenous firm-level volatility over the business cycle based on endogenous market exposure. Firms that reach a larger number of markets diversify market-specific demand risk at a cost. The model is driven only by total factor productivity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010755868
features of worker flows and job flow simultaneously. In particular, the model correctly predicts that hires from unemployment … hiring flow that does not go through unemployment but is part of job creation, for which procyclicality of the job finding … rate dominates its cyclicality. The authors also show that the model generates large volatilities of unemployment and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008627183
Inference about common international stochastic trends and interest rates is gained using a small open economy model, data from seven developed countries, and Bayesian methods. Shocks to these common factors explain up to 17 percent of the variability of output in several economies....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008627186
This paper attempts to quantify business cycle effects of bank capital requirements. The authors use a general equilibrium model in which financing of capital goods production is subject to an agency problem. At the center of this problem is the interaction between entrepreneurs' moral hazard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008627187
This paper contains a dynamic general equilibrium model with an endogenous process for growth and business cycles driven partly by technological discovery and diffusion. The model integrates two branches of the literature. One is literature on Schumpeterian, or "quality ladder," models, in which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717310
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717325
This paper reviews recent approaches to modeling the labour market and assesses their implications for inflation dynamics through both their effect on marginal cost and on price-setting behavior. In a search and matching environment, we consider the following modeling setups: right-to-manage...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717331