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Credit, bankruptcy, and aggregate fluctuations
Nakajima, Makoto; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2014
countercyclicality of bankruptcy filings found in U.S. data? Yes, it does, but only if we explicitly model recessions as displaying … countercyclical earnings risk (i.e., rather than having all households fare slightly worse than normal during recessions, we ensure … is 20 percent more volatile when credit is available. The interest rate premia increase in recessions because of higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941009
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A quantitative analysis of the u.s. housing and mortgage markets and the foreclosure crisis
Chatterjee, Satyajit; Eyigungor, Burcu - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2015
We present a model of long-duration collateralized debt with risk of default. Applied to the housing market, it can match the homeownership rate, the average foreclosure rate, and the lower tail of the distribution of home-equity ratios across homeowners prior to the recent crisis. We stress the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206262
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Monetary policy: decision-making, tools, and objectives
Anderson, Clay J. - 1961
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002956434
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Economic insights
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - Philadelphia, Pa. : Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - Volume 1, issue 1 (1st quarter 2016)-
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207426
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Improving GDP measurement: a forecast combination perspective
Aruoba, S. Boragan; Diebold, Francis X.; Nalewaik, Jeremy; … - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2011
Two often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure-side version GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version GDI . The authors propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. They then put the theory to work, producing a superior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320691
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Demystifying the Federal Reserve: a speech at Lafayette College Policy Studies Program, Easton, PA, September 29, 2009
Plosser, Charles I. - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2009
Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Lafayette College Policy Studies Program, Farinon College Center, Lafayette College, Easton, PA, September 29, 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010727119
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Common factors in small open economies: inference and consequences
Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2010
Inference about common international stochastic trends and interest rates is gained using a small open economy model, data from seven developed countries, and Bayesian methods. Shocks to these common factors explain up to 17 percent of the variability of output in several economies....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008627186
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Improving GDP measurement: a measurement-error perspective
Aruoba, S. Boragan; Diebold, Francis X.; Nalewaik, Jeremy; … - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2013
We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties -- particularly as regards serial correlation -- differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010652361
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Microeconomic uncertainty, international trade, and aggregate fluctuations
Alessandria, George; Choi, Horag; Kaboski, Joseph P.; … - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2014
, while second-moment shocks lead to increases in trade relative to GDP in recessions. Empirically, using detailed product …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941010
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Trade adjustment dynamics and the welfare gains from trade
Alessandria, George; Choi, Horag; Ruhl, Kim J. - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2014
We build a micro-founded two-country dynamic general equilibrium model in which trade responds more to a cut in tariffs in the long run than in the short run. The model introduces a time element to the fixed-variable cost trade-off in a heterogeneous producer trade model. Thus, the dynamics of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010762570