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Competition, syndication, and entry in the venture capital market

Hong, Suting - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2013

syndication between entrant and incumbent VC firms, (ii) the impact of entry on VC contract terms and survival rates of VC …-backed start-up companies, and (iii) the effect of syndication between entrant and incumbent VC firms on the competition in the VC … syndication between entrants and incumbents dampens the competitive effect of entry. Using a data set of VC-backed investments in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010732484

Optimal financial contracts for large investors: the role of lender liability

Berlin, Mitchell; Mester, Loretta J. - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2000

This paper explores the optimal financial contract for a large investor with potential control over a firm's investment decisions. The authors show that an optimally designed menu of claims for a large investor will include features resembling a U.S. version of lender liability doctrine,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005389742

Fiscal policy: ex ante and ex post

Croushore, Dean; van Norden, Simon - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2014

The surge in fiscal deficits since 2008 has put a renewed focus on the authors’ understanding of fiscal policy. The interaction of fiscal and monetary policy during this period has also been the subject of much discussion and analysis. This paper gives new insight into past fiscal policy and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010930299

Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

Rossi, Barbara; Inoue, Atsushi - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2011

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the … choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over … application shows the usefulness of the methodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009216229

Forecast bias in two dimensions

Croushore, Dean - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2012

Economists have tried to uncover stylized facts about people’s expectations, testing whether such expectations are rational. Tests in the early 1980s suggested that expectations were biased, and some economists took irrational expectations as a stylized fact. But, over time, the results of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551328

Does data vintage matter for forecasting?

Croushore, Dean; Stark, Tom - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 1999

This paper illustrates the use of a real-time data set for forecasting. The data set consists of vintages, or snapshots …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387468

Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications

Diebold, Francis X.; Kilian, Lutz - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 1997

The authors propose a measure of predictability based on the ratio of the expected loss of a short-run forecast to the expected loss of a long-run forecast. This predictability measure can be tailored to the forecast horizons of interest, and it allows for general loss functions, univariate or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387481

Reverse Kalman filtering U.S. inflation with sticky professional forecasts

Nason, James M.; Smith, Gregor W. - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2013

We provide a new way to filter US inflation into trend and cycle components, based on extracting long-run forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We operate the Kalman filter in reverse, beginning with observed forecasts, then estimating parameters, and then extracting the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010692396

A Bayesian vector error corrections model of the U.S. economy

Stark, Tom - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 1998

(VEC) literature, the author specifies the baseline model as a Bayesian VEC. The author documents the model's forecasting … promise as a workhorse forecasting tool. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717293

A real-time data set for macroeconomists

Croushore, Dean; Stark, Tom - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 1999

robustness of published econometric results, for analyzing policy, and for forecasting. The data set consists of vintages, or …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717356