We develop a nonlinear state-space model that captures the joint dynamics of consumption, dividend growth, and asset returns. Building on Bansal and Yaron (2004), our model consists of an economy containing a common predictable component for consumption and dividend growth and multiple...

We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties -- particularly as regards serial correlation -- differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side...