Dotsey, Michael; Fujita, Shigeru; Stark, Tom - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2011
The Phillips curve has long been used as a foundation for forecasting inflation. Yet numerous studies indicate that … over the past 20 years or so, inflation forecasts based on the Phillips curve generally do not predict inflation any better … accurate when the economy is strong. It, therefore, appears that forecasters should not fully discount the inflation forecasts …