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The Phillips curve has long been used as a foundation for forecasting inflation. Yet numerous studies indicate that … over the past 20 years or so, inflation forecasts based on the Phillips curve generally do not predict inflation any better … accurate when the economy is strong. It, therefore, appears that forecasters should not fully discount the inflation forecasts …
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Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia> The Philadelphia Chapter of the Risk Management Association, Philadelphia, PA, January 11, 2011
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Economic Prospects and Monetary Policy for the New Year> 33rd Annual Economic Seminar, January 11, 2012, Rochester, New York
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010727157
We build a New Keynesian model in which heterogeneous workers differ with regard to their employment status due to search and matching frictions in the labor market, their potential labor income, and their amount of savings. We use this laboratory to quantitatively assess who stands to win or...
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This paper reexamines the forecasting ability of Phillips curves from both an unconditional and conditional perspective by applying the method developed by Giacomini and White (2006). We find that forecasts from our Phillips curve models tend to be unconditionally inferior to those from our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011213902
literature by considering a local approximation around a zero inflation steady state and introducing idiosyncratic shocks. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005389663
Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce<p> President Charles Plosser gives his views on economic growth, inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011124390
separation rate, whether exogenous or endogenous, greatly increases the unemployment variability generated by the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421573