interaction of fiscal and monetary policy during this period has also been the subject of much discussion and analysis. This paper …

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the … choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over … application shows the usefulness of the methodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability. …

a stylized fact. But, over time, the results of tests that led to such a conclusion were reversed. In this paper, we …

This paper presents a small-scale macroeconometric time-series model that can be used to generate short-term forecasts … (VEC) literature, the author specifies the baseline model as a Bayesian VEC. The author documents the model's forecasting … promise as a workhorse forecasting tool. …

This paper presents the concept and uses of a real-time data set that can be used by economists for testing the … robustness of published econometric results, for analyzing policy, and for forecasting. The data set consists of vintages, or … snapshots, of the major macroeconomic data available at quarterly intervals in real time. The paper illustrates why such data …

the Third Federal Reserve District--Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. This paper extends that work by developing a …

In this paper the authors argue that a plausible reason why output and other major U.S. macroeconomic time series seem …

This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not …

This paper proposes Bayesian forecasting in a vector autoregression using a democratic prior. This prior is chosen to …