Following Campbell (1987) and Campbell and Shiller (1987), many papers have evaluated the intertemporal approach to the current account by testing restrictions on a Vector Autoregression (VAR). The attractiveness of the Campbell-Shiller methodology is that it is thought to be immune to omitted...

This paper models and tests the implications of institutional efficiency on the pattern of foreign direct investment (FDI). We posit that domestic agents have a comparative advantage over foreign agents in overcoming some of the obstacles associated with corruption and weak institutions. We...

Delivered at the 19th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies After the Crisis: Planning a New Financial Structure, New York City.

We estimate potential welfare gains from financial integration and corresponding better insurance against country-specific shocks to output (risk sharing) for the twenty-five European Union countries. Using theoretical utility-based measures we express the gains from risk sharing as the utility...

We investigate the risk-return relation in international stock markets using realized variance constructed from MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) daily stock price indices. In contrast with CAPM, realized variance by itself provides negligible information about future excess stock...

We investigate the international transmission of inflation among G-7 countries using a data-determined vector autoregression analysis, as advocated by Swanson and Granger (1997). Over the period 1973 to 2003, we find that U.S. innovations have a large effect on inflation in the other countries,...

This paper develops a two-country macro model with endogenous tradability to study features of international economic integration. Recent episodes of integration in Europe and North America suggest some surprising observations: while quantities of trade have increased significantly, especially...

This paper examines the impact of European Monetary Union (EMU) accession on bilateral Portuguese international borrowing patterns. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, I demonstrate that Portugal’s accession to the EMU was accompanied by a change in its borrowing pattern in favor of...

Using formal statistical tests, we detect (i) significant volatility increases for various types of capital flows for a period of changes in business cycle comovement among the G7 countries, and (ii) mixed evidence of changes in covariances and correlations with a set of macroeconomic variables.

This paper proposes a new tractable approach to solving asset allocation problems in situations with a large number of risky assets which pose problems for standard approaches. Investor preferences are assumed to be defined over moments of the wealth distribution such as its mean, variance, skew...