We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

We study the role of war bonds and inflation in the presidential elections of the 1950s. During World War II, the … promotion of savings bonds made Americans more sensitive to the high inflation that prevailed after the war, contributing to …

, demand shocks, and monetary policy are the fundamental drivers of inflation. Endogenously time-varying risk premia imply that …

marginal costs and inflation. As workers climb the job ladder, reducing slack in the employment pool, the inflation effect …, unemployment and inflation to aggregate shocks. The ratio between job-finding probabilities from job-to-job and from unemployment …, a measure of the "Acceptance rate" of job offers to employed workers, predicts negatively inflation, independently of …

inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely … impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024 …

perspective on the linkages among monetary policy, inflation, and the business cycle. It is argued that the adoption of an …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

ideas. The coroner's evidence consists of the small standard deviation of the core inflation rate in the past two decades … despite substantial volatility of the unemployment rate, and in particular the common tendency of PC inflation equations to … predict ever greater amounts of negative inflation (i.e., deflation) over the years of labor-market slack since 2008 …