We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

Macro data suggests a convex relationship between inflation and economic slack, but identifying causality is … strongest in firms and industries with higher inflation, disappears in horizons beyond two years, and is also present in … response to cost shocks. We rationalize these findings in a menu cost model with positive trend inflation and decreasing …

We study the role of war bonds and inflation in the presidential elections of the 1950s. During World War II, the … promotion of savings bonds made Americans more sensitive to the high inflation that prevailed after the war, contributing to …

study the consequences of unexpected inflation on the labor market. The slow and costly adjustment of real wages within a … match after a burst of inflation incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions. Such dynamics after a surge in … inflation lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies relative to unemployment, associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower …

marginal costs and inflation. As workers climb the job ladder, reducing slack in the employment pool, the inflation effect …, unemployment and inflation to aggregate shocks. The ratio between job-finding probabilities from job-to-job and from unemployment …, a measure of the "Acceptance rate" of job offers to employed workers, predicts negatively inflation, independently of …

, demand shocks, and monetary policy are the fundamental drivers of inflation. Endogenously time-varying risk premia imply that …

inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely … impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024 …