We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

its slope coefficient in recent years, as well as a shrinking role of lagged price inflation in the determination of wage … inflation. We provide estimates of a conditional wage Phillips curve, based on a structural decomposition of wage, price and …

Treasury bill rate, housing starts, industrial production, inflation and their forecasts are trend stationary. The corporate …

This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U.S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation … by low inflation. However, prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when … policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the Phillips curve. I estimate …

We study the role of war bonds and inflation in the presidential elections of the 1950s. During World War II, the … promotion of savings bonds made Americans more sensitive to the high inflation that prevailed after the war, contributing to …

inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly …

in recent decades can be explained by the success that monetary policy has had in quelling inflation and anchoring … inflation expectations since the 1980s. We also review the experience of the 1960s, the last time inflation expectations became …

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

This paper first outlines the key stylized facts about changes in inflation dynamics in recent years: 1) inflation … persistence has declined, 2) the Phillips curve has flattened, and 3) inflation has become less responsive to other shocks. These … changes in inflation dynamics are interpreted as resulting from an anchoring of inflation expectations as a result of better …

unemployment-inflation tradeoff since 1995 …