We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …

We study the role of war bonds and inflation in the presidential elections of the 1950s. During World War II, the … promotion of savings bonds made Americans more sensitive to the high inflation that prevailed after the war, contributing to …

, demand shocks, and monetary policy are the fundamental drivers of inflation. Endogenously time-varying risk premia imply that …

We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power interacted to induce … the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply-chain pressures increased inflation … through a cost-push channel and raised inflation expectations. Subsequently, the cost-push channel intensified as firms with …

inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely … impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024 …

This paper examines the shift in the relation between the inflation rate and the rate of growth of real output which … possible lines of explanation: a) the new classical view of the output-inflation tradeoff, initially specified by Lucas;b) the … effect of supply-side shocks, such as energy prices; c) the effect of inflation variability on the natural rate of real …

This paper investigates whether permanent monetary tightenings increase inflation in the short run. It estimates, using … increases in the nominal interest-rate lead, in accordance with conventional wisdom, to a decrease in inflation and output and … an immediate increase in inflation and output and a decline in real rates. Permanent monetary shocks explain more than 40 …