We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

Macro data suggests a convex relationship between inflation and economic slack, but identifying causality is … strongest in firms and industries with higher inflation, disappears in horizons beyond two years, and is also present in … response to cost shocks. We rationalize these findings in a menu cost model with positive trend inflation and decreasing …

We study the role of war bonds and inflation in the presidential elections of the 1950s. During World War II, the … promotion of savings bonds made Americans more sensitive to the high inflation that prevailed after the war, contributing to …

Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …

problem implies that the monetary authority's inflation target evolves as its estimated Phillips curve moves. Our estimates … attribute the rise and fall of post WWII inflation in the US to an intricate interaction between the monetary authority … tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. That caused a sharp rise in inflation in the 1970s. Our estimates say that …

investigate the role of individual firms and product categories in aggregate inflation. We decompose inflation into the component …, respectively. In advanced economies, the firm granular residual accounts for 41% of the variance of overall inflation, while the … residuals are less important in economies with less concentrated market shares and higher inflation, such as emerging markets …

, demand shocks, and monetary policy are the fundamental drivers of inflation. Endogenously time-varying risk premia imply that …

We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power interacted to induce … the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply-chain pressures increased inflation … through a cost-push channel and raised inflation expectations. Subsequently, the cost-push channel intensified as firms with …