We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the … inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between … discounts grew at a much lower average rate than regular prices, helping to mitigate the inflation burden. By contrast …

We study the role of war bonds and inflation in the presidential elections of the 1950s. During World War II, the … promotion of savings bonds made Americans more sensitive to the high inflation that prevailed after the war, contributing to …

, demand shocks, and monetary policy are the fundamental drivers of inflation. Endogenously time-varying risk premia imply that …

the Covid pandemic. Inflation responded asymmetrically to movements in demand. This helps to explain why inflation did not … most of the rise during the rebound. Inflation rates across firms have become more dispersed and skewed since the start of … the pandemic. We find that average price inflation is positively correlated with the dispersion and skewness of the …

This paper analyses the response of firms to monthly CPI inflation releases using high-frequency data from a large … economy-wide business survey. CPI inflation perceptions respond very quickly, in a matter of hours after the release. We also … find that firms' expected own-price growth has a strong positive correlation with changes in CPI inflation, particularly …

inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely … impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024 …

public finances. We show that when the ECB misses its inflation target this has large heterogeneous fiscal consequences for … missing their inflation targets. They are also sizeable …