We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

We study the role of war bonds and inflation in the presidential elections of the 1950s. During World War II, the … promotion of savings bonds made Americans more sensitive to the high inflation that prevailed after the war, contributing to …

inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …

, demand shocks, and monetary policy are the fundamental drivers of inflation. Endogenously time-varying risk premia imply that …

We empirically characterize episodes of large inflation surges that have been observed worldwide in the last three … decades. We document four facts. (1) Inflation following surges tends to be persistent, with the duration of disinflation … exceeding that of the initial inflation increase. (2) Surges are initially unexpected but followed by a gradual catch-up of …

inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely … impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024 …

curve can account for inflation not just in the U.S. but across a range of countries, once household or firm-level inflation … expectations are used. Given this relationship, we can infer the dynamics of slack from the dynamics of inflation gaps and vice … versa. We find that the implied slack was pushing inflation below expectations in the years after the Great Recession but …