We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

Macro data suggests a convex relationship between inflation and economic slack, but identifying causality is … strongest in firms and industries with higher inflation, disappears in horizons beyond two years, and is also present in … response to cost shocks. We rationalize these findings in a menu cost model with positive trend inflation and decreasing …

We study the role of war bonds and inflation in the presidential elections of the 1950s. During World War II, the … promotion of savings bonds made Americans more sensitive to the high inflation that prevailed after the war, contributing to …

, demand shocks, and monetary policy are the fundamental drivers of inflation. Endogenously time-varying risk premia imply that …

We empirically characterize episodes of large inflation surges that have been observed worldwide in the last three … decades. We document four facts. (1) Inflation following surges tends to be persistent, with the duration of disinflation … exceeding that of the initial inflation increase. (2) Surges are initially unexpected but followed by a gradual catch-up of …

inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …

investigate the role of individual firms and product categories in aggregate inflation. We decompose inflation into the component …, respectively. In advanced economies, the firm granular residual accounts for 41% of the variance of overall inflation, while the … residuals are less important in economies with less concentrated market shares and higher inflation, such as emerging markets …