Showing 1 - 10 of 142
This paper makes four points about the recent dynamics of productivity and potential output. First, after accelerating … in the mid-1990s, labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed after the early to mid 2000s. This slowdown preceded … the Great Recession. Second, in contrast to some informal commentary, productivity performance during the Great Recession …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026917
, including capital, are used to produce a quarterly series on total factor productivity (TFP). In addition, the dataset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026920
U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules explanations that …, consistent with a return to normal productivity growth after nearly a decade of exceptional IT-fueled gains. A calibrated growth … model suggests trend productivity growth has returned close to its 1973-1995 pace. Slower underlying productivity growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026938
The renewal of interest in macroeconomic theories of search frictions in the goods market requires a deeper understanding of the cyclical properties of the intensive margins in this market. We review the theoretical mechanisms that promote either procyclical or countercyclical movements in time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010930257
industries is highly correlated, identifiable shocks, like shocks to productivity, are far less correlated. While previous work …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361478
This paper exploits business cycle asymmetry observed in data, namely, a systematic shift in the dynamic relationship between the output and the interest rate spread across expansionary and contractionary periods in forecasting monthly industrial production. A bivariate model of monthly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078244
Whether prices are pro- or counter-cyclical represents a major difference in the predictions of models that focus on aggregate demand shocks as the primary source of business cycle fluctuations, versus those that emphasize shocks to aggregate supply. Earlier studies have interpreted their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078264
This paper investigates whether an asymmetry is present in the Granger-causal relationship between output and a set of interest rates and their spreads, across expansionary and contractionary business cycle phases in post 1950 U.S. Non-structural VAR models of monthly industrial production and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078268
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078295
The time series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States. GNP growth is positively autocorrelated over short horizons and negatively autocorrelated over longer horizons, and GNP has an important trend reverting component which has a hump-shaped moving...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078298