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Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve

Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Williams, John C. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2007

We show that professional forecasters have essentially no ability to predict future recessions a few quarters ahead … forecast horizon for predicting aggregate economic activity and, especially, for signaling future recessions. We document this …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361466

The labor market in the Great Recession: an update

Elsby, Michael W.L.; Hobijn, Bart; Sahin, Aysegül; … - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2011

Since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009, the unemployment rate has recovered slowly, falling by only one percentage point from its peak. We find that the lackluster labor market recovery can be traced in large part to weakness in aggregate demand; only a small part seems attributable to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009395272

The economic recovery: past, present, and future

Williams, John C. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2013

Presentation to the Sonoma County Economic Development Board, Rohnert Park, California, June 28, 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010724820

Issues raised by the credit crunch and global recession

Yellen, Janet L. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2009

Presentation to the Haas Business School, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010724838

Sovereigns versus banks: credit, crises, and consequences

Jorda, Oscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2013

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010728016

The labor market in the Great Recession

Elsby, Michael; Hobjin, Bart; Sahin, Aysegül - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2010

exhibited important departures from that seen in prior deep recessions. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008489225

Issues raised by the credit crunch and global recession

Yellen, Janet L. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2009

·Videoconference Presentation to the Australian Business Economists, Sydney, Australia, May 7, 2009 ; President Yellen presented similar remarks to the Haas Business School in Berkeley, California on May 5, 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026894

The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises, and business cycles

Jorda, Oscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2014

which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026939

Transition dynamics in vintage capital models : explaining the postwar catch-up of Germany and Japan

Gilchrist, Simon (contributor); … - 2004

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003156157

Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks

Lansing, Kevin J. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2008

speculative agents overreact to observed technology shocks. When making forecasts about the future, speculative agents behave like … to confirm the stronger technology response. For moderate levels of risk aversion, the forecast errors observed by the … improvements in technology, investment and consumption booms, and faster trend growth, reminiscent of the U.S. economy during the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361519