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Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Wasmer, Etienne; Zeng, Shutian - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2014

The renewal of interest in macroeconomic theories of search frictions in the goods market requires a deeper … search in the goods market. At the individual level, time allocated to different shopping activities is increasing in … individual and household income. Overall, this body of evidence supports procyclical consumer search effort in the goods market …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010930257

Productivity and potential output before, during, and after the Great Recession

Fernald, John - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2014

U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules explanations that focus on disruptions during or since the recession, and industry and state data rule out “bubble economy” stories related to housing or finance. The slowdown is located in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026938

The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises, and business cycles

Jorda, Oscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2014

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026939

The extent and cyclicality of career changes: evidence for the U.K

Hobijn, Bart; Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos; She, Powen; … - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2014

U.K. data from 1993-2012 suggest that in economic downturns a smaller fraction of unemployed workers change their career when starting a new job. The proportion of total hires involving a career change also drops. This implies that career changes decline during recessions. The results indicate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010892278

Explaining the boom-bust cycle in the U.S. housing market: a reverse-engineering approach

Lansing, Kevin J.; Gelain, Paolo; Natvik, Gisele J. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2015

plausibly matching the patterns observed in the data. Counterfactual simulations show that shifting lending standards (as …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011152610

Betting the house

Jorda, Oscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2014

Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114889

Aggregate shocks or aggregate information? costly information and business cycle comovement

Veldkamp, Laura; Wolfers, Justin - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2006

When similar patterns of expansion and contraction are observed across sectors, we call this a business cycle. Yet explaining the similarity and synchronization of these cycles across industries remains a puzzle. Whereas output growth across industries is highly correlated, identifiable shocks,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361478

Forecasting industrial production using models with business cycle asymmetry

Huh, Chan G. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 1993

This paper exploits business cycle asymmetry observed in data, namely, a systematic shift in the dynamic relationship between the output and the interest rate spread across expansionary and contractionary periods in forecasting monthly industrial production. A bivariate model of monthly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078244

The cyclical behavior of prices: interpreting the evidence

Judd, John P.; Trehan, Bharat - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 1993

Whether prices are pro- or counter-cyclical represents a major difference in the predictions of models that focus on aggregate demand shocks as the primary source of business cycle fluctuations, versus those that emphasize shocks to aggregate supply. Earlier studies have interpreted their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078264

Asymmetry in the bivariate relationship between output and interest rates

Huh, Chan G. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 1994

This paper investigates whether an asymmetry is present in the Granger-causal relationship between output and a set of interest rates and their spreads, across expansionary and contractionary business cycle phases in post 1950 U.S. Non-structural VAR models of monthly industrial production and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078268

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