We show that professional forecasters have essentially no ability to predict future recessions a few quarters ahead. This is particularly puzzling because, for at least the past two decades, researchers have provided much evidence that the yield curve, specifically the spread between long- and...

Linearized New Keynesian models and empirical no-arbitrage macro-finance models offer little insight regarding the implications of changes in bond term premiums for economic activity. We investigate these implications using both a structural model and a reduced-form framework. We show that there...

Speech to the San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Group, San Francisco, California, February 12, 2008. ; President Janet L. Yellen presented similar remarks to the Chartered Financial Analysts of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii, February 7, 2008

Speech to the Bay Area Council 18th Annual Outlook Conference, Alameda, California, April 16, 2008

Speech to the National Association for Business Economics, San Francisco, California. September 10, 2007

Speech to the Chartered Financial Analysts of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii, February 7, 2008

Presentation to community leaders, Salt Lake City, Utah, November 2, 2012

Speech to Town Hall – Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, October 9, 2007

Speech to a community leaders' luncheon, Portland, Oregon, July 10, 2008. ; President Yellen presented similar remarks to the University of California San Diego Economics Roundtable in San Diego, CA on July 7, 2008

Speech to the University of California San Diego Economics Roundtable, San Diego, California, July 7, 2008