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This paper derives a general class of intrinsic rational bubble solutions in a standard Lucas-type asset pricing model. I show that the rational bubble component of the price-dividend ratio can evolve as a geometric random walk without drift. The volatility of bubble innovations depends...
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of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We …
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In September 2002, a new market in "Economic Derivatives" was launched allowing traders to take positions on future values of several macroeconomic data releases. We provide an initial analysis of the prices of these options. We find that market-based measures of expectations are similar to...
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prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decisionmaking and risk management--in both the public and private sectors. This …
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