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We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
inflation in the 2020s. Economic slack is measured as firms' job vacancies over the number of unemployed workers. After showing …. Policy implications include the thesis that appropriate monetary policy can bring inflation down without a significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250214
In line with Keynes' intuition, volatility in the stock market and in real economic activity are linked by expectations of long term profits. We show that analysts' optimism about the long term earnings growth of S&P 500 firms is associated with a near term boom in major US financial markets,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337811
This paper provides estimates of the effect of unemployment insurance benefits on labor supply outcomes over the business cycle using 20 years of administrative claims and earnings data from California. A regression kink design exploiting nonlinear benefit schedules provides experimental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468271
to higher inflation, particularly when uncertainty couples with policies redirecting time use towards housework (e …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447275
We study how labor market conditions affect unionization decisions. Tight labor markets might spur unionization, e.g., by reducing the threat of unemployment after management opposition or employer retaliation in response to a unionization attempt. Tightness might also weaken unionization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447309
We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics--but not employment dynamics--during the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361970
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002496910
We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696
Amidst the recent resurgence of inflation, this paper investigates the interplay of corporate profits and income … distribution in shaping inflation and aggregate demand within the New Keynesian framework. We derive a novel analytical condition …-demand fluctuations and inflation to be amplified by heterogeneity, profits have to be countercyclical--an implication that is at odds …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337850