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Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle

Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolò, Giovanni; Song, Dongho - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995

How Costly Are Business Cycle Volatility and Inflation? A Vox Populi Approach

Georgarakos, Dimitris; Kim, Kwang Hwan; Coibion, Olivier; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

similar result holds for inflation: to bring inflation to their desired rate, individuals would be willing to sacrifice around … 5% of their consumption. Willingness to pay to eliminate business cycles and inflation is generally higher for those …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015326470

It's Baaack : The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve

Benigno, Pierpaolo; Eggertsson, Gauti B. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

inflation in the 2020s. Economic slack is measured as firms' job vacancies over the number of unemployed workers. After showing …. Policy implications include the thesis that appropriate monetary policy can bring inflation down without a significant …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250214

Long Term Expectations and Aggregate Fluctuations

Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; La Porta, Rafael; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

In line with Keynes' intuition, volatility in the stock market and in real economic activity are linked by expectations of long term profits. We show that analysts' optimism about the long term earnings growth of S&P 500 firms is associated with a near term boom in major US financial markets,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337811

Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits : Evidence from Administrative Micro Data

Ganong, Peter; Greig, Fiona E.; Noel, Pascal J.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics--but not employment dynamics--during the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361970

Why Didn't the U.S. Unemployment Rate Rise at the End of WWII?

Fujita, Shigeru; Ramey, Valerie A.; Roded, Tal - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper investigates why the U.S. unemployment rate rose only a few percentage points despite the dramatic decline in government spending and other upheaval at the end of World War II. Using a new longitudinal data set based on archival sources and government surveys, we study the many facets...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094883

Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Cacciatore, Matteo; Hauser, Daniela; Gnocchi, Stefano - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

to higher inflation, particularly when uncertainty couples with policies redirecting time use towards housework (e …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447275

Labor Market Tightness and Union Activity

Pezold, Chantal; Jäger, Simon; Nüß, Patrick - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We study how labor market conditions affect unionization decisions. Tight labor markets might spur unionization, e.g., by reducing the threat of unemployment after management opposition or employer retaliation in response to a unionization attempt. Tightness might also weaken unionization by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447309

UI Benefit Generosity and Labor Supply from 2002-2020

Bell, Alex; Hedin, T. J.; Schnorr, Geoffrey C.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper provides estimates of the effect of unemployment insurance benefits on labor supply outcomes over the business cycle using 20 years of administrative claims and earnings data from California. A regression kink design exploiting nonlinear benefit schedules provides experimental...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468271

Recovering from COVID

Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

The COVID business cycle was unique. The recession was by far the deepest and shortest in the U.S. postwar record and the recovery was remarkably rapid. The cycle saw an unprecedented reallocation of employment and consumption away from in-person services towards goods that can be consumed at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015409888