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This paper considers VAR models incorporating many time series that interact through a few dynamic factors. Several econometric issues are addressed including estimation of the number of dynamic factors and tests for the factor restrictions imposed on the VAR. Structural VAR identification based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467213
. Specifically, we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock, while … controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock. We explicitly allow for the possibility of … announcement effects, i.e., that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future, but not at present …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464097
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001974169
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001979869
Much of the empirical literature on the natural rate of interest has focused on estimating its path. This paper addresses the question of how exogenous movements in the natural rate of interest affect aggregate activity and inflation in the short and long runs. To this end it proposes a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361991
institutional and structural changes that China has undergone. We find that increases in bank reserve requirements reduce economic … account. Overall, our results indicate that the monetary policy transmission channels in China have moved closer to those of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458147
This paper provides evidence on the consumption effects of trade shocks by exploiting changes in US and Chinese trade policy between 2017 and 2018. The analysis uses a unique data set with the universe of new auto sales at the US county level, at a monthly frequency, and a simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480297
An open question in the literature is whether families compensate or reinforce the impact of child health shocks. Discussions usually focus on one dimension of child investment. This paper examines multiple dimensions using household survey data on Chinese child twins whose average age is 11. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457909
This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries …. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output …-trade matrix. For example, due to these output-multiplier effects, a shock to one country can have a large impact on countries that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470116
We propose a novel identification strategy of imposing sign restrictions directly on the impulse responses of a large set of variables in a Bayesian factor-augmented vector autoregression. We conceptualize and formalize conditions under which every additional sign restriction imposed can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456932