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This paper considers VAR models incorporating many time series that interact through a few dynamic factors. Several econometric issues are addressed including estimation of the number of dynamic factors and tests for the factor restrictions imposed on the VAR. Structural VAR identification based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467213
Most empirical analyses of monetary policy have been confined to frameworks in which the Federal Reserve is implicitly assumed to exploit only a limited amount of information, despite the fact that the Fed actively monitors literally thousands of economic time series. This article explores the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470341
. Specifically, we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock, while … controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock. We explicitly allow for the possibility of … announcement effects, i.e., that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future, but not at present …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464097
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output-the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457809
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001979869
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001974169
Much of the empirical literature on the natural rate of interest has focused on estimating its path. This paper addresses the question of how exogenous movements in the natural rate of interest affect aggregate activity and inflation in the short and long runs. To this end it proposes a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361991
institutional and structural changes that China has undergone. We find that increases in bank reserve requirements reduce economic … account. Overall, our results indicate that the monetary policy transmission channels in China have moved closer to those of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458147
This paper provides evidence on the consumption effects of trade shocks by exploiting changes in US and Chinese trade policy between 2017 and 2018. The analysis uses a unique data set with the universe of new auto sales at the US county level, at a monthly frequency, and a simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480297
Has the expansion in exports affected pollution and health outcomes across different prefectures in China in the two … products: while two prefectures may experience the same shock in dollar terms, the one specializing in the dirty sector has a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455876