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Near-rational exuberance
Bullard, James B.; Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2004
monetary policy framework. Inclusion of judgement in forecasts can lead to self-fulfilling fluctuations, but without the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707643
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Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research
Evans, George; Honkapohja, Seppo - Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) - 2008
Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010552353
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What drives urban consumption in mainland china? The role of property price dynamics
Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael; Mehrotra, Aaron - Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) - 2011
This paper adds to the literature on wealth effects on consumption by disentangling house price effects on consumption … movements have different implications for the consumption/housing ratio. We exploit the geographical variation in property … model. Overall, the results suggest a significant long run impact of property prices on consumption. They also broadly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877108
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Political Risk, Economic Integration, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision
Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael - Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) - 2008
In this paper we analyse the impact of policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment strategies. We also consider the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550763
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Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty
Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael - Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) - 2009
The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework … of the link between cyclical uncertainty and investment is quantified using simulations of the model. The chief …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010552357
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Optimal taxation with imperfect competition and aggregate returns to specialization
Coto-Martínez, Javier; Garriga, Carlos; … - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007
In this paper we explore the proposition that in economies with imperfect competitive markets the optimal capital income tax is negative and the optimal tax on firms profits is confiscatory. We show that if the total factor productivity as well as the measure of firms or varieties are endogenous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352792
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Optimal fiscal policy in the design of Social Security reforms
Conesa, Juan Carlos; Garriga, Carlos - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007
sizeable welfare gains, arising because of the reduction in labor supply distortions. In contrast, the welfare gains coming …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352854
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Intergenerational policy and the measurement of tax incidence
Conesa, Juan Carlos; Garriga, Carlos - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2013
Policymakers often use measures of tax incidence (generational accounts) as criteria for policy selection. We use a quantitative model of optimal intergenerational policy to evaluate the ability of the tax incidence metric to capture the identity of recipients and contributors and the magnitudes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010640522
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Generational policy and the macroeconomic measurement of tax incidence
Conesa, Juan Carlos; Garriga, Carlos - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2009
In this paper we show that the generational accounting framework used in macroeconomics to measure tax incidence can, in some cases, yield inaccurate measurements of the tax burden across age cohorts. This result is very important for policy evaluation, because it shows that the selection of tax...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004973893
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Indirect taxation and the welfare effects of altruism on the optimal fiscal policy
Garriga, Carlos; Sánchez-Losada, Fernando - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2009
taxation (consumption and estate taxes) with important welfare implications. We use three different altruistic approaches (warm …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008583257