Showing 1 - 10 of 15
The evolution of the rate of price inflation, (t), and unemployment, u(t), in Japan has been modeled within the … well as the whole deflationary period started in the late 1990s. The Phillips curve for Japan confirms the original concept … that growing unemployment results in decreasing inflation. A linear and lagged generalized Phillips curve expressed as a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260989
Countries in which inflation targeting has been adopted require high quality inflation forecasts. The Polish National … Bank adopted a variant of implicit inflation targeting and therefore the ability to forecast inflation is critically … important to policy makers. Since the domestic price formation process is still evolving, medium term inflation forecasting is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004961523
and lagged relationships between the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France, several … relationships were estimated eight years ago. The change rate of labour force was used as a driving force of inflation and … estimated with eight new readings obtained since 2004. The rate of CPI inflation is predicted with RMSFE=1.5% per year. For the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011109998
We model the rate of inflation and unemployment in Austria since the early 1960s within the Phillips/Fisher framework … macroeconomic variable was first tested as a predictor of inflation and unemployment in 2005 with the involved time series ended in … relationships between inflation, unemployment, and labour force. As before, a structural break is allowed in these relationships …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110150
This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation … Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647210
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
banks use forecasting models based on ANN methodology for predicting various macroeconomic indicators, like inflation, GDP … Growth and currency in circulation etc. In this paper, we have attempted to forecast monthly YoY inflation for Pakistan by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835473
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, π(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF … in previous study holds together with statistical estimates of goodness-of-fit and RMSFE. Relationships between inflation … relationships between the studied variables demonstrates the superiority of the latter. The cumulative inflation curve or inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835964
Previously, a linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, π(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1 … (RMFSE) of 0.8% at a two-year horizon for the period between 1965 and 2002 (the best among other inflation forecasting models … relation between macroeconomic and population variables, to a practical one - an accurate out-of-sample inflation forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836346
last two years, can well be explained. Alongside the more traditional macroeconomic determinants like core inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836851