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Allen, Donald S. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1999

Empirical tests of the production-smoothing hypothesis have yielded mixed results. In this paper, Donald Allen looks for, and finds evidence of, seasonal production smoothing in 15 out of 25 manufacturing series and 8 out of 10 retail series, using detrended seasonally unadjusted data. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352964

Identifying technology shocks in the frequency domain

DiCecio, Riccardo; Owyang, Michael T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2010

forecast-error variance share of labor productivity at long horizons. In this paper, we propose a variant of the Max Share … identification, which focuses on maximizing the variance share of labor productivity in the frequency domain. We consider the … shock increases productivity, output, and hours at business-cycle frequencies. The technology shock that maximizes …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008598669

Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data

Bullard, James B.; Duffy, John - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2004

.S., such as the productivity slowdown, increased labor force participation by women, and the "new economy" of the 1990s. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360544

On learning and the stability of cycles

Bullard, James; Duffy, John - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1995

We study a general equilibrium model where the multiplicity of stationary periodic perfect foresight equilibria is pervasive. We investigate the extent of which agents can learn to coordinate on stationary perfect foresight cycles. The example economy, taken from Grandmont (1985), is an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360549

Regional business cycle phases in Japan

Wall, Howard J. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2006

This paper uses a Markov-switching model with structural breaks to characterize and compare regional business cycles in Japan for 1976-2005. An early 1990s structural break meant a reduction in national and regional growth rates in expansion and recession, usually resulting in an increase in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360555

Endogenous money supply and the business cycle

Gavin, William T.; Kydland, Finn E. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1997

This paper documents changes in the cyclical behavior of nominal data series that appear after 1979:Q3 when the Federal Reserve implemented a policy to lower the inflation rate. Such changes were not apparent in real variables. A business cycle model with impulses to technology and a role for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360556

The cyclical relationship between output and prices: an analysis in the frequency domain

Pakko, Michael R. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1997

Recent research showing negative correlations between detrended output and prices during the postwar period has brought into question the conventional wisdom that prices are procyclical. However, this finding has been shown to be sensitive to the sample period considered. This paper examines the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360577

Inventories, liquidity, and the macroeconomy

Wen, Yi - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2008

It is widely believed in the literature that inventory fluctuations are destabilizing to the economy. This paper re-assesses this view by developing an analytically-tractable general-equilibrium model of inventory dynamics based on a precautionary stockout-avoidance motive. The model's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360585

The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations

Kim, Chang-Jin; Nelson, Charles; Piger, Jeremy M. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2003

Using a Bayesian model comparison strategy, we search for a volatility reduction within the post-war sample for the growth rates of U.S. aggregate and disaggregate real GDP. We find that the growth rate of aggregate real GDP has been less volatile since the early 1980s, and that this volatility...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360586

A steady-state approach to trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes

Morley, James; Piger, Jeremy M. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2005

In this paper, we present a new approach to trend/cycle decomposition under the assumption that the trend is the permanent component and the cycle is the transitory component of an integrated time series. The permanent component is defined as the steady-state level of the series, a definition...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352749

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