The rational expectations revolution made clear that a complete macro model requires a specification of the government's economic policy. We argue that monetary policy should be conducted in such a way that the market can predict policy actions. An implication of market success in predicting...

The Shadow Open Market Committee was formed in 1973 in response to rising inflation and the apparent unwillingness of U.S. policymakers to implement policies necessary to maintain price stability. This paper describes how the Committee's policy views differed from those of most Federal Reserve...

It is commonly believed that the Federal Reserve targeted money growth directly and allowed greater variation in interest rates during the October 1979-October 1982 period. Other things the same, this policy regime would be expected to increase the risk premium on the dollar exchange rate...

Conventional investigations of the "best" intermediate target variable for monetary policy have used a single criterion: the best fit between the behavior of an aggregate and that of some goal variable such as nominal spending or the aggregate price level. Ignored in this type of study, however,...

Presentation to the Missouri Bankers Association Senior Bank Management Conference, Acapulco, Mexico - Jan. 15, 2001

Presentation at the University of Missouri-Columbia - Nov. 4, 1999

Presentation at the HM Treasury/GES Conference, London, Nov. 30, 2005

Presentation to the Reflections on Monetary Policy: 25 Years After October 1979 a conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Mo., Oct. 8, 2004

Presentation at Cato Institute, Washington, D.C., Oct. 14, 2005