Similar Search Results

Bullard, James B.; Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2004

monetary policy framework. Inclusion of judgement in forecasts can lead to self-fulfilling fluctuations, but without the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707643

A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation

Owyang, Michael T.; Piger, Jeremy M.; Wall, Howard J. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007

the origin of the aggregate volatility reduction. We show that states with relatively high concentrations in the durable-goods …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360567

The transition from barter to fiat money

Ritter, Joseph A. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1994

How did it become possible to exchange apparently valueless pieces of paper for goods? This paper provides an … equilibrium account of the transition between barter and fiat money regimes. The explanation relies on the intervention of a self …-interested government which must be able to promise credibly to limit the issue of money. To achieve credibility, the government must offset …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707776

Are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack? evidence from 20th century historical data

Owyang, Michael T.; Ramey, Valerie A.; Zubairy, Sarah - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2013

A key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during times when resources are idle. This paper seeks to shed light on this question by analyzing new quarterly historical data covering multiple large wars and depressions in the U.S. and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011027317

Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR

Owyang, Michael T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2002

Recently, models of monetary policy have been constructed to include structural breaks to account for changes in policymaker preferences or operating procedures. These models typically assume that when changes occur, they happen once and for all. In this paper, we allow the policymaker and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490882

Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle

Francis, Neville; Owyang, Michael T. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2004

Monetary policy VARs typically presume stability of the long-run outcomes. We introduce the possibility of switches in the long-run equilibrium in a cointegrated VAR by allowing both the covariance matrix and weighting matrix in the error-correction term to switch. We find that monetary policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490901

Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy

Owyang, Michael T.; Wall, Howard J. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2006

We find that the magnitudes of the regional effects of monetary policy were considerably dampened during the Volcker-Greenspan era. Further, regional differences in the depths of monetary-policy-induced recessions are related to the concentration of the banking sector, whereas differences in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490938

Monetary policy, determinacy, and learnability in a two-block world economy

Bullard, James B.; Schaling, Eric - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2006

We study how determinacy and learnability of worldwide rational expectations equilibrium may be affected by monetary policy in a simple, two country, New Keynesian framework under both fixed and flexible exchange rates. We find that open economy considerations may alter conditions for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490985

Committing and reneging: a dynamic model of policy regimes.

Haubrich, Joseph G.; Ritter, Joseph A. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1999

Actual policy decisions are made in real time and are not irrevocable. These observations are mundane, but most policy modeling has neglected them. We show that when policy is made in an environment of uncertainty, costs of switching policies give the option to wait positive value. This insight...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490988

Worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules

Bullard, James B.; Singh, Aarti - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007

We study the interaction of multiple large economies in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. Each economy has a monetary policymaker that attempts to control the economy through the use of a linear nominal interest rate feedback rule. We show how the determinacy of worldwide equilibrium...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005491008