"State per capita incomes became more disperse during the contraction phase of the Great Depression, and less disperse during the recovery phase. We investigate the effects of geography, industry structure, bank failures and fiscal policies on state income growth during each phase. We find that...

"Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) and Brennan, Wang, and Xia (2004) recently argue that the value premium co-moves with investment opportunities and thus reflects rational pricing. This paper extends their analysis by showing that the ICAPM interpretation of the value premium also sheds light on...

"When monetary policies are endogenous, the conventional VAR approach for detecting the effect of monetary policies is powerless. This paper proposes to test the implication of monetary policies along a different dimension. That implication is to exploit the policy induced exogeneity of...

"One basic problem in business-cycle studies is how to deal with nonstationary time series. The market economy is an evolutionary system. Economic time series therefore contain stochastic components that are necessarily time dependent. Traditional methods of business cycle analysis, such as the...

"This paper evaluates the ability of formal rules to establish U.S. business cycle turning point dates in real time. We consider two approaches, a nonparametric algorithm and a parametric Markov-switching dynamic-factor model. In order to accurately assess the real-time performance of these...