Real-business-cycle models suggest that an increase in the rate of productivity growth increases the real rate of interest. But economic theory is ambiguous when it comes to the effect of government budget deficits on the real rate of interest. Similarly, little is known about the effect of...

We study a simple, microfounded macroeconomic system in which the monetary authority employs a Taylor-type policy rule. We analyze situations in which the self-confirming equilibrium is unique and learnable according to Bullard and Mitra (2002). We explore the prospects for the use of ‘large...

This paper creates a new series of the FOMC*s Target for the federal funds rate for the period September 27, 1982 through December 31, 1993. The creation of this series was motivated by Thornton (2005). Analyzing the verbatim transcripts of the FOMC, Thornton finds that most of the FOMC believed...

Despite its important role in macroeconomics and finance, the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates has received little empirical support. While the EH*s poor performance has been attributed to a variety of sources, none appear to account for the EH*s poor...

Motivated, on the one hand, by the belief that the Fed controls the short-term rate through open market operations, and on the other, by "the lack of convincing proof that this is what happens," Hamilton (1997) suggested that more convincing evidence of the liquidity effect could be obtained...

This paper presents a general model of the determination of the interest rate and the exchange rate which is relevant for a small economy with any degree of capital mobility. The model is tested by using the quarterly data of Korea and Singapore. The emperical results show that in the Korean...

This article uses a DSGE framework to evaluate the role of monetary policy in determining the likelihood of encountering the zero lower bound. We find that the probability of experiencing episodes of being at zero lower bound depends almost exclusively on the monetary policy rule. A policy rule,...

May 23, 2013. Presentation. "Monetary Policy in a Low Policy Rate Environment." OMFIF Golden Series Lecture, London.