"The paper documents a new empirical result that a high level of aggregate U.S. idiosyncratic stock return volatility is usually associated with a future appreciation in U.S. dollars. The relation is highly significant for most foreign currencies. For example, idiosyncratic volatility accounts...

"Most intervention studies have been silent on the assumed structure of the economic system--implicitly imposing implausible assumptions--despite the fact that inference depends crucially on such issues. This paper proposes to identify the cross-effects of intervention with the level and...

"One basic problem in business-cycle studies is how to deal with nonstationary time series. The market economy is an evolutionary system. Economic time series therefore contain stochastic components that are necessarily time dependent. Traditional methods of business cycle analysis, such as the...