"The paper documents a new empirical result that a high level of aggregate U.S. idiosyncratic stock return volatility is usually associated with a future appreciation in U.S. dollars. The relation is highly significant for most foreign currencies. For example, idiosyncratic volatility accounts...

"Most intervention studies have been silent on the assumed structure of the economic system--implicitly imposing implausible assumptions--despite the fact that inference depends crucially on such issues. This paper proposes to identify the cross-effects of intervention with the level and...

We analyze the intertemporal stability of excess returns to technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market by conducting true, out-of-sample tests on previously studied rules. The excess returns of the 1970s and 1980s were genuine and not just the result of data mining. But these profit...