Caunedo, Julieta; DiCecio, Riccardo; Komunjer, Ivana; … - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2013
We jointly test the rationality of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook forecasts of infiation, unemployment, and output growth using a multivariate nonseparable asymmetric loss function. We find that the forecasts are rationalizable and exhibit directional asymmetry. The degree of asymmetry...