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stochastic structure. This paper discusses in detail the speciation of a vector error correction forecasting model that is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360642
single data series. In principle, information about other economic indicators should be useful in forecasting a particular … growth at horizons of 3, 12 and 24 months ahead. These forecasts are then compared to simple forecasting rules. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352782
beat even a naive no-change model in out-of-sample forecasting. More recently, the use of sophisticated econometric … a small predictable component to exchange rates. This article reviews the literature on forecasting exchange rates with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352793
In this paper we model the U.S. economy parsimoniously in an a theoretic state space representation. We use monthly data for thirteen macroeconomic variables. We treat the federal deficit as a proxy for fiscal policy and the fed funds rate as a proxy for monetary policy and use each of them as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352818
One criticism of VAR forecasting is that macroeconomic variables tend not to behave as linear functions of their own … past around business cycle turning points. This article investigates the methods and efficacy of forecasting with a VAR …. ; (earlier title: Forecasting output with information from business cycle turning points: a qualitative variable VAR) …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352833
Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting their economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts are important because they indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. We evaluate the accuracy of the FOMC...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352875
FOMC projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352919
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352934
standard VAR projections. Previous forecasting methods for qualitative variables, in contrast, only produce static forecasts. I … apply the Qual VAR to forecasting the 2001 business recession out of sample and to analyzing the Romer and Romer (1989 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352947
. Furthermore, we construct multiple-step ahead forecasts and evaluate the forecasting performance of the model. Finally, an … threshold autoregressive models: estimation, forecasting and rational expectations applications …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352948