We explore the influence of city-level business cycle fluctuations on crime in 20 large cities in the United States. Our monthly time series analysis considers seven crimes over an approximately 20-year period: murder, rape, assault, robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. Short-run...

This paper examines the determinants of employment growth in metro areas. To obtain growth rates, we use a Markov-switching model that separates a city’s growth path into two distinct phases (high and low), each with its own growth rate. The simple average growth rate over some period is,...

We use monthly time-series data for 20 large U.S. cities to test the deterrence hypothesis (arrests reduce crimes) and the resource reallocation hypothesis (arrests follow from an increase in crime). We find (1) weak support for the deterrence hypothesis, (2) much stronger support for the...

This paper examines and compares the recent business cycle experiences of the seven states that lie partly or wholly within the Eighth Federal Reserve District (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee). For the period surrounding the 1990-91 NBER recession,...

Presentation to the Northeast Mississippi Economic Forecast Conference, Jan. 20, 2005

Presentation to the Northeast Mississippi Economic Forecast Conference, Jan. 20, 2005

Address before Bryant College, Providence, R.I., Oct. 14, 2003

Presentation to the St. Louis Regional Commerce and Growth Association, Leadership Circle - July 15, 1998

This paper draws on the experiences of the United States and European Community to speculate on the effects of agreements to integrate high and low income economies. The evidence suggests that reducing barriers to the flow of goods or resources will promote convergence, even among integrating...

We study a model of economic growth and development with a threshold externality. The model has one steady state with a low and stagnant level of income per capita and another steady state with a high and growing level of income per capita. Both of these steady states are locally stable under...