Piger, Jeremy M.; Rasche, Robert H. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2006
” variables, and long-horizon inflation forecasts for explaining the U.S. inflation rate in the post-war period. For alternative … specifications for the inflation driving process and measures of inflation and the gap we reach a similar conclusion: the … contribution of changes in long-horizon inflation forecasts dominates that for the gap and supply shock variables. Put another way …