Given at the 36th Annual Economic Policy Conference, St. Louis. October 20, 2011.

Delivered at the High Profile Speaker Series, New York Society of Security Analysts, New York City. November 8, 2010.

Presented at the Annual Dealmakers Event, San Diego, California.

Presented at CFA Society of St. Louis. November 15, 2011.

Presented in London, U.K. Addressed members of various financial institutions on Wednesday at the UBS Macro Dinner in London.

This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy applied to direct, multi-step predictions from both non-nested and nested linear regression models. In contrast to earlier work in the literature, our asymptotics take account of the real-time,...

This paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on combining recursive and rolling forecasts when linear predictive models are subject to structural change. Using a characterization of the bias-variance tradeoff faced when choosing between either the recursive and rolling...

Recent work suggests VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. The uncertainty inherent in any single...

A speech at the Middle Tennessee State University, Annual Economic Outlook Conference, Murfreesboro, Tenn., Sept. 29, 2006

2008 Annual Economic Outlook Conference, Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, Tenn., Sept. 26, 2008